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We regularly provide you with the most important news, articles, topics, projects and ideas for One World – No Hunger.
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Disruption or transformation? With the new Strategic Foresight Report for Agriculture and Food Systems, GIZ looks into future scenarios of the post 2030 era.
What might the future look like? A question, that we not only ask at the beginning of a new year, but also with regards to geopolitical turbulences these days. GIZ presented its Strategic Foresight Report on Futures of Agriculture and Food Systems in an international workshop at GIZ Berlin Representation on January 14th, 2026. Four possible and plausible scenarios offered glimpses into the future that allowed to develop strategic responses for stakeholders in agriculture and food systems and international cooperation.
“Feeding the world by 2050, reducing poverty, and protecting the environment will only be possible through strong international cooperation and forward-looking action”, Nina Theis, head of section G510 – Agricultural Systems and Agriculture Supply Chains, outlined. “Yet what we have clearly seen: many global ambitions to end hunger and poverty are at a crossroad and extreme uncertainty has become the new normal.”
Moritz Hunger, member of the Foresight Team of the GIZ Corporate Development Unit, together with the Sector Project Agriculture, used generative Artificial Intelligence (AI) to develop four plausible futures of agriculture and food systems until 2035: Growth, Collapse, Discipline and Transformation.
The workshop brought together policy makers, development practitioners, researchers, private sector and civil society. Among the participants were international partners of the Partners for Change (P4C) network, the Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations (FAO), and the Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ).
“Even with many open questions about the future of multilateralism, I am convinced that it is worth investing our energy in a post-SDG agenda that places agriculture and food systems at its core,” says Jochen Renger, Director of the GIZ Sectoral Department (FMB) for Climate Change, Rural Development and Infrastructure.
Surprisingly, many workshop participants discovered that elements of all four scenarios are already a reality. To make the transformation scenario come true, stakeholders need to be open-minded and share a common optimistic view, participants agreed. “All four scenarios relate, in different ways, to a post-SDG agenda”, Jochen Renger, Director of the GIZ Sectoral Department (FMB) for Climate Change, Rural Development and Infrastructure pointed out in the closing panel. “The choices we make now can steer us toward very different futures.” Strategic foresight helps to leave silos and to move to integrated solutions, he added. It is an increasingly important tool for development cooperation, as the recently issued BMZ reform plan “Shaping the future together globally“ states.
However, also crises and shocks can have a positive impact on future agriculture and food systems, as was stressed by Permanent Secretary of the Zambian Ministry of Agriculture, John A. Mulongoti, in the closing panel. Disruptive events like the severe drought in Zambia in 2024 have brought positive change and learnings. The support to farmers that are affected has become more targeted also with the help of new technologies. Furthermore, after the interruptions of wheat and fertiliser supply chains through the Russian war on Ukraine, Zambia has adapted its agri-food strategies and turns out to be stronger after the crisis: Nowadays, Zambia is not as dependent on foreign suppliers as it was before and is furthermore exporting fertiliser and maize to its neighbours and the region.
By Claudia Jordan
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